Weekly Market Updates – June 29, 2026

June 29, 2026

The Markets

Lowering inflation may prove to be a challenge.

Last week, inflation was on the minds of investors after one of the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s favorite inflation gauges showed inflation at a three-year high. Both headline and core inflation were well above the Fed’s two percent target.

This was the third consecutive month of accelerating price increases, reported Megan Leonhardt of Barron’s. Prices have been rising, in part, due to the energy shock created by the Iran conflict, but inflation is not just an energy story, anymore. Other factors are creating price pressures, including:

Inflation expectations are changing. When consumers believe that prices will keep rising, they ask for higher wages and spend sooner, pushing prices higher still. The Fed likes to keep expectations anchored with its 2 percent inflation goal. Right now, that anchor is less secure than the Fed would like. Americans who participated in the most recent University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey expect inflation to average 4.6 percent over the next year.

AI is making devices more expensive. The AI build-out requires a lot of advanced memory chips, the same chips inside your phone, laptop, and car. Demand has been outpacing supply, pressuring prices. Last week two major tech companies raised prices on consumer electronics and software. Industry leaders warn chip shortages could persist beyond 2028, reported Don Forbes of Dow Jones Newswires.

Tariffs effects are rippling through. Import taxes don’t hit prices immediately. The effects are realized over months as inventories turn over and companies reset prices. Ron Mau and Tucker Smith of the Dallas Fed found that core inflation in March 2026 (3.2 percent) would have been lower (2.3 percent) if there were no tariffs.

Another complication in the Fed’s inflation fight is the national debt, which stands at about $39.3 trillion. This year, the annual interest payment on the debt is expected to exceed $1 trillion. Some economists are concerned that deficit-driven spending will make it more difficult for the Fed to fight inflation because higher rates will increase the interest owed, reported Maria Eloisa Capurro of Bloomberg.

Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a gain, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes fell. Yields on U.S. Treasuries generally moved lower over the week.

WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT

“Life is a series of natural and spontaneous changes. Don’t resist them; that only creates sorrow. Let reality be reality. Let things flow naturally forward in whatever way they like.”

– Lao Tzu, Philosopher

Disclosures and resources:

* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
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Sources:
https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2026-06/pi0526.pdf
https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/pce-inflation-report-fed/card/pce-inflation-hits-4-1-in-may-c3snOQgwlhywtAVijNdO or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/06-29-26-Barrons-Infation-Hits-in-May%20-%202.pdf
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a.htm
https://www.clevelandfed.org/center-for-inflation-research/inflation-explained-your-guide-to-inflation-basics/what-causes-inflation
https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu
https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-062626?mod=hp_LEDE_C_2 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/06-29-26-Barrons-AI-Boom-Risks-Driving-Up%20-%206.pdf
https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-march-2026
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2026/0505-mau
https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/debt-to-the-penny
https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2026-02/61882-Executive-Summary.pdf
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-04/yellen-warns-of-growing-fiscal-dominance-threat-to-us-economy or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/06-29-26-Bloomberg-Yellen-Warns-of-Growing%20-%2011.pdf
https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/06-29-26-Barrons-DJIA-S&P-Nasdaq-%2012.pdf
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=202606
https://www.bain.com/insights/the-future-of-opex-in-the-agent-economy/
https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/what-we-do/capabilities/applied-artificial-intelligence/content/state-of-ai-in-the-enterprise.html
https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/about/press-room/state-of-ai-report-2026.html
https://www.bain.com/insights/how-token-economics-will-change-opex/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-06-23/a-jevons-paradox-in-bureaucracy? or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/06-29-26-Bloomberg-A-Jevons-Paradox-in-Bureaucracy%20-%2018.pdf
https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/119283-life-is-a-series-of-natural-and-spontaneous-changes-don-t

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